Toward a Methodology for Geopolitical Analysis

Vinicius Mariano de Carvalho

doi:10.52781/cmm.a215

Autores

Vinicius Mariano de Carvalho Kings College London London, United Kingdom. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9745-4073

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52781/cmm.a215

Palavras-chave:

Strategic Intelligence, budgetary planning, Geopolitical Analysis, Geoeconomics

Resumo

A geopolítica, historicamente disputada entre o determinismo clássico e a teoria crítica, exige uma abordagem analítica rigorosa e sistemática para que possa produzir resultados relevantes para a formulação de políticas públicas. Este texto propõe uma metodologia estruturada de análise geopolítica, fundamentada na literatura clássica e contemporânea, delineando as etapas essenciais, as ferramentas analíticas e as competências centrais que um analista geopolítico deve dominar. Com base em autores que vão de Halford Mackinder e Nicholas Spykman a Klaus Dodds e Colin Gray, as proposições aqui apresentadas tratam a investigação geopolítica como um processo iterativo que integra raciocínio espacial, análise histórica, mapeamento da distribuição do poder, avaliação geoeconômica e desenvolvimento estruturado de cenários. O arcabouço metodológico também aborda os desafios cognitivos e epistemológicos inerentes à análise geopolítica, incluindo o efeito de espelhamento (mirror-imaging), o viés de confirmação e a interpretação equivocada de mudanças estruturais. Exemplos práticos extraídos da competição estratégica no Indo-Pacífico, da arquitetura de segurança europeia, da guerra na Ucrânia e do ataque do Hamas de 7 de outubro de 2023 ilustram cada uma das etapas metodológicas. O artigo conclui apresentando um conjunto de competências fundamentais — espaciais, históricas, quantitativas e relacionadas às técnicas profissionais de análise (tradecraft) — que definem a prática profissional da análise geopolítica no século XXI.

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Biografia do Autor

Vinicius Mariano de Carvalho, Kings College London London, United Kingdom.

Dr Vinicius Mariano de Carvalho was born in Barra Mansa, Brazil. He received his PhD from the University of Passau, Germany, and his undergraduate and MA degrees from the Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil.

He joined King’s in 2014 and before he was Associate Professor for Brazilian Studies at Aarhus University (2008-2014), Denmark, where he was also Director of the Latin American Centre (2012-2014). Vinicius was a Lieutenant in the Brazilian Army (2007-2008), serving in the Military Technical Corps.

At King’s, Vinicius has served as a Vice Dean (International) for the Faculty of Social Science & Public Policy, and director of King’s Brazil Institute between 2020 and 2022. At the War Studies Department, he is the Convener of the MA in Strategic Communications and teaches UG modules on Latin America issues.

Vinicius is the Circle U. Academic Chair Programme Coordinator. He has played an active role contributing to the field of Brazilian studies, founding and editing Brasiliana – Journal for Brazilian Studies and as Editor of the Anthem Brazilian Studies Series.

In 2022, Vinicius created the Observatory of Democracy in Latin America (KODLA). He is also an Associate Researcher at the Centre for Strategic Studies of the Brazilian Navy. Parallel to his academic career, Vinicius is a music conductor and currently directs the King’s Brazil Ensemble.

- https://www.kcl.ac.uk/people/vinicius-de-carvalho

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Toward a Methodology for Geopolitical Analysis

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Vinicius Mariano de Carvalho, Kings College London London, United Kingdom.

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